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Wayne Short, CRB, CRS

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Fall 2017, Grand Lake Real Estate Activity

10/25/2017

2017, 1st 8 months of real estate activity for

The Grand Lake area of NE Oklahoma.

Data provided by the NE Oklahoma MLS

 

The 1st 8 months of real estate activity for the Grand Lake area in 2017 has been a busier sales year than 2016.  2017 has had 788 residential sales (avg. 98.5 per month) compared to the 678 sales (84.5 per month) in 2016.  This was a 16.5% increase in real estate activity for the three county areas.

 

During the most recent 6 month period ending October 1, 2017 there were 29 residential closings in Grove, Ok; 50 closings in Delaware County and 88 closing in the entire MLS area for Grand Lake.  The latest 6 months show a total of 618 in 2017 closings compared to just 534 for 2016.  This continues a trend started two years ago..

Average Days on the market for listing have reduced from 177 days in 2016 to 154 days in 2017.

Absorption rate (months to sell all listed homes) has dropped from 13.4 months in 2016 to 11.19 months in 2017.

There are fewer listing for sale now than a year ago, 872 compared to last year’s 990 as of Oct. 1, 2017.  New listing in 2017 kept pace with 2016 showing a 1.8% increase in listing.

Pending sales continue strong with 90 listed as of Oct. 1, 2017 compared to 87 a year ago.

Active listings Oct.1, 2017 were 872 compared to almost 1,000 this time a year ago.

Activity in various Price ranges.

350 homes sold in 2017 below the $100,000 price range compared to 322 a year ago for the 1st 8 months of the year.

226 homes sold in the $100,000 to $200,000 price range in 2017 compared to 186 last year.

105 homes were sold in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range compared to 75 during the 1st 8eight months of 2016

$300,000 and up saw 107 homes sold in 2017 compared to 91 homes in 2016.

 

What the rest of the year should bring:  Prices should start rising; inventories and supplies of homes need to rise and sales will lesson a bit this fall and winter with less lake visitors.

What the Average 1st Time Buyer looks like in the U.S.

7/10/2017

What the average 1st time home buyer looks like in the U.S.

First time buyers make up 35% of all buyers.  The median age is 32 with a median income of $72,000.

Married couples (58% f buyers) purchase a $208,500 median priced home.  Single Males (8% of buyers) purchase a $157,000 home, Single females (18% of buyers) purchase a $146,300 home and unmarried couples (14% of buyers) purchase a $165,500 home.

The median home price the 1st time buyers purchase is $182,500. The median down payment is 6%.  Prior to buying a home, 74% rented and 21% lived with their parents.   The median down payment is 6%.  13% of 1st time buyers in the US were foreign born.

What are 1st time buyers looking for in a home:  82% want a single family detached home, 9% are looking for a townhome, 2% want a home in a duplex or 4-plex and 1% want in a condo building?

Ethnic background of buyers: 70% are white, 9% are Hispanic, 8% are Asian or Pacific Islander, 7% are black and 3% are not identified.

60% of 1st time buyers have no children, 19% have one child, 15% have two children and 5% have three or more children.

Data from NAR, 2017

Grand Lake Real Estate update

5/15/2017

Grand Lake Real Estate Update

May, 2017

 

 

Real Estate activity in the Grand Lake area has been robust for the 1st 4 months of 2017.  Total listings sold were 291 residential units up from 241 a year ago.  That is a 20.7% increase.  There are also 349 listing under contract compared to 309 listings in 2016.  That is also a 12.9% increase.

With the increase in sales, average “days on the market” have gone down 4.55% to 168 days.  In April of 2016 it would take 13.4 months to sell the entire inventory if no new homes came on the market.  April, 2017 only showed 10.75 months to deplete all inventory….a decrease of 19.78%.

Buyers are buying more expensive homes on average than they did in April 2016.  April, 2017 showed a average sales price of $199,764 compared to $149,554 a year ago.

The previous trends should continue as the market tightens up.  Total homes for sale this April were 853 compared to 1005 at the end of April, 2016.  That was a 15.1% decrease in available properties for buyers to look at. 

What to expect in the future:  Inventory will remain lower and prices will start going up.  Now is the time to buy or sell real estate in the Grand Lake area.

Data supplied by the NE Oklahoma MLS.

Economic and real estate info for Grand Lake, march, 2017

3/13/2017

Real Estate and Economic news for the Grand Lake area.

March, 2017

 

Good news and bad news for real estate buyers and sellers at Grand Lake.

Good news for sellers:  Listings are selling a little faster than a year ago and the inventory levels are down 10% from last year and about 20% from 2015.

Good news for sellers:  Pending sales for Feb. are up 45% from a year ago and up 24% for the 1st two months of 2017 compared to 2016.

Good news for sellers:  Twice as many homes in the $250,000 to $500,000 range sold in the 1st two months of 2017 as last year (17 to 9) but no homes closed above $500,000 compared to 8 last year.  Total closings in all price ranges were down about 5% in 2017 compared to 2016.

Good news for buyers:  Interest rates are still in the mid 4% range for fixed rate loans.  There has not been much inflation in home prices at Grand Lake. Historically there should be an increase in listings to view as we move into spring and we see more new home activity than any time in the last 4 years.

Grove, OK:  The city has just completed their construction project at Main and 3rd street down town.  New sidewalks, curbs and drainage have been added.  The 1909 Restaurant has opened and seems to be doing very well along with The Wolf Creek Diner at the North end of downtown Grove.

Grand Lake area:  Shangri-La Resort Hotel at Grand Lake is projected to open spring, 2017.  It has been over 6 years since the area has had a convention center and hotel.  This project will definitely fill a void the lake area has had plus introduce Grand Lake to a whole new group of future visitors and home buyers.

The Cherokee Casino is now open just north of Grove.  They offer slots, dining and entertainment for our residents and many visitors.

The 15 Million dollar Performing arts center by Grove High School will soon be open.  This state of the art, 1200 seat facility will be used by the Grove school system and the local community.  It also will be a storm shelter for up to 800 individuals.

 

Fall, 2016 real estate report

10/11/2016

FALL, 2016 Real Estate Report

For

Grand Lake, OK

 

Real Estate activity has been stable for the 1st nine months of 2016.  Total sales were 673 units, a decrease of 2.7% from the same period in 2015.  That difference is made up by the 88 pending sales that were 15.8% ahead of the same total Sept. 30, 2015.

The listing market continues to tighten and selections are down.  There were 891 listing available at the end of September compared to 1013 in 2015.  That is a decrease of 12%.

Average list price of all homes on the market is $271,195.  This # is on par with 2015.  The average home sold was priced at $160,041, again on par with 2015.

For homes sold in the 1st nine months of 2016 the average DOM, Days on Market, was 177 days…..the same as 2015.

In all price ranges there is 12.6 months of inventory based on Homes sold and homes on the market.  In the $250,000 to $500,000 range the inventory level goes to 19.6 months and in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 price range there is a 2 year supply of homes available based on the 1st nine months of sales in 2016.

We should see an increase in activity at the lake in the coming year.  New businesses being built, a new casino and the new hotel and convention center on Monkey Island should introduce more potential buyers to the “Grand” life at Grand Lake, OK.

 

Mid Year, 2016 Report, Grand Lake Real Estate

7/21/2016

Mid-year Real estate report, 2016

Grand Lake area of NE Oklahoma

Data by NE Oklahoma MLS

 

Residential sales/Closings were 409 units, 4.66% less than 2015

Average sales price of sold homes was $156,869 a 1.5% increase over 2015

Average sales price over last listed price was 92.84%...slightly above 2015

There were 129 less homes on the Market at the end of June than a year ago. This was a 12% decline in inventory. With no new listings added to the market there is a 13+ months of Inventory in the Grand Lake area. This compares to 4-5 months of inventory in Tulsa, Wichita and KC.

Median days on the market is a more accurate measure of how long it takes to sell a home in the Grand Lake area. Median days on the Market (DOM) were 118 days compared to 123 the end of June, 2015.

1091 homes were listed in the 1st 6 months of 2016 compared to 1137 homes in 2015. June, 2016 there were around 990 residential properties listed for sale

 

HUD Reports Continued Progress for Housing Recovery.

HUD’s analysis of the U.S. market showed continued progress in the Nation’s housing recovery with growth in existing-home sale, homeowner’s equity and home value appreciation.

 

According to the national Association of Realtors existing home sales rose at the highest pace in nine years in May 2016. Sales were 4.5% higher year-over-year and have been above 5 million units for 14 of the last 15 months.

Homeowner equity has increased by $6.5 trillion since the end of 2011.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports home values nationally rose 5.9% over the previous year. The FHFA index reports U.S. home values have rose 30.2% above the low point reached in March 2011.

 

 

Grand Lake Real Estate Report

4/12/2016

Grand Lake Real Estate Report

1st Quarter, 2016

 

Grove, Oklahoma was just ranked the #1, best town (under 100,000 population) to retire in Oklahoma. Niche.com did the ranking and they rank and have data with local rankings and stats on virtually every city in the United States. Vinita was ranked #9.

Rankings are based on Residents over 65, Retiree new comers, monthly housing costs, crime and safety stats, Property tax levels, weather, and access to doctors, golf, grocery stores, libraries, recreation & fitness and places to eat.

 

The 1st Quarter of 2016 showed a 4.4% increase in residential sales at the lake over 2015. Pending sales for the same period are up 13.7% showing the lake area has not been hurt too badly by declining oil prices and employment in the energy sector in Oklahoma.

The average price of a home sold in March and the 1st quarter of 2016 was higher than the same period in 2015. $139,223 for the 1st quarter 2015 compared to an 16.62% increase to $162,360 for this year. Average days on the market of sold listings has remained constant around 6 months. There currently is a 12 month supply of homes for sale at the lake compared to 3-5 months in most metro areas in the 4 state areas. Total listings are down 4% year over year and new listings coming on the market are barely up 2.3% for the 1st quarter of 2016. These numbers should continue to stabilize prices for the rest of the year.

 

 

Grand Lake real estate values

3/7/2016

Grand Lake area real estate activity

for the 1st two months of 2016

Real estate activity for the 1st two months of 2016 is better than the same time in 2015. There is some concern for future months with all the layoffs in the oil sector but the recent stabilization of oil prices, low gas prices for travel and boating, stock market increase the 1st of March, 242,000 new jobs in February and the 4.9% unemployment rate bodes well for the rest of the year.

Sold listings in 2016 were 10% more than the 1st two months of 2015.

Pending sales are up about 20% over 2015

Average sales price is up 28.79% to $172,431. This does NOT mean home values have increased but that we are selling higher $ homes.

Average days on the market dropped 10% to 183 days.

There still is 11.5 months of inventory around the lake but that is down 11% from a year ago.

Total active listings and new listings added January and February are both down from last year. Less homes to choose from but this should stabilize prices. The average price of a home listed in 2016 is 8% higher than in 2015.

The biggest concern is the sell to list price ratio which is still less than 90% of the last list price. We still have a lot of our more expensive lake homes being listed to high for market conditions.

Information provided by Wayne “SHORTY” Short with RE/MAX Grand Lake and the NE Oklahoma Multiple Listing Service, 3-7-2016

 

Economic update for Grand Lake

2/10/2016

Economic update for the Grand Lake area

of NE Oklahoma.

 

New businesses and expansions coming to the Grand Lake area creating up to 500 new jobs over the next 4 years.

A new 120 room hotel is being added to the Shangri-La Golf Resort on Monkey Island at Grand Lake. The new hotel will be accessible by land and water and will have a casual dining restaurant, convention space, resort pool plus a indoor & outdoor bar/grill. The hotel will replace the previous Shangri-La hotel that was closed and demolished in 2006.

The Cherokee Nation has announced plans for their 10th Casino in Oklahoma….The new Cherokee Casino at Grove, OK. The new casino’s first phase will start this year and be built just North of Sail Boat Bridge north of Grove, OK. The initial phase of the casino is suppose to be 39,000 sq ft and have 400 Electronic games plus dining, dancing and Lots of FUN. The initial phase should provide 175 new jobs to the area.

Ferra Aerospace is building a 6 million dollar expansion in Grove, OK close to the Regional Airport on HWY10.Plans are to hire an additional 100 workers over the next 4 years in High quality/High paying jobs. There is several other businesses in the Grove Business Park that work for and with Ferra Aerospace on aircraft components. Two major U.S. programs the company works on are the F35 Strike Fighter and the Black Hawk Helicopter.

How important are manufacturing jobs to the community? The 100 new jobs Ferra Aerospace will create generate another 250 service sector jobs in the immediate area.

Real Estate market, Grand Lake, October, 2015

10/7/2015

U.S. and NE Oklahoma Economic and housing data and forecast for the rest of 2015.

Data from NAR’s Chief economist, Lawrence Yun

And the NE Oklahoma board of Realtors and MLS

GDP for the rest of 2015 will pick up in the 2nd ½ of the year but only 2.1 percent, good but not great.

Lower Gas prices will increase consumer spending about 3%

Nationally and locally, construction spending increased 6% in the 1st ½ of 2015 and should increase at an even faster pace the last 6 months of 2015.

2.5 million NET jobs should be created in the U.S. during 2015.

There is a national housing shortage. Prior to 5 years ago there were around 1.5 million new units being built each year. Since then only around 750,000 homes have been built each year. We may not see 1.5 million units again until 2017.

Most foreclosures (the Shadow Inventory) have been sold. Foreclosures now make up less than 10% of national sales and continue to fall.

Historically low interest rates (3% range) have made owning a home very affordable. This may change soon and quickly. Demand is forcing home prices up (not so much in the Grand Lake area) and interest rate increases will make payments increase substantially. Example: $200,000 loan at 3.5% for 30 years is $898 P&I. At 6% this payment would be $1199.

Nationally Home prices are increasing faster the wage earners incomes.

*What does this all mean? Existing and new home sales will continue to rise. Thee will be 5.5 million home sales in 2015, a 7% increase from 2014. Home sales are still 25% below sales prior to the 2004-2006 periods.

What’s happening in the Grand Lake, Oklahoma area.

Home sales YTD from 2014 to 2015 are down 1%

Pending sales (homes under contract) are down 1.3% from 2014

Total listings available to sell are down 3% from the same period in 2014. (good news for future prices)

The average sales price of homes sold in the 1st 3 quarters of 2015 compared to 2014 are down 6.12%. $160,949 compared to $171,443 last year.

There is over a year’s inventory of homes in the Grand Lake area assuming no new listings were added to the market. This is more than double what major metro areas have in the 4-States.

Average days on the market stayed at the 6 month level. This is four times the average time on the market of a Wichita, KS home.

The average sold to list ratio dropped substantially last month. August saw the highest level for 2015 at 92.8% of value but September sales dropped to 86% of last listed price. This is also indicative of the end of the summer selling season at the lake.

*All in all the market is stable in the Grand Lake area. Well priced and updated homes are selling but not any faster than they have for the last two years. Prices have not really increased since the 2007-2008 period. In fact if the home has not been updated or is not in good repair you might see them selling for a discount compared to the go-go years in the early 2000’s.

Report prepared October, 2015 by Wayne Short, CRB, CRS, MBA with RE/MAX Grand Lake

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